# Codex Agent Context - top_1

Generated: 2026-05-19
Project: `/var/www/vps2.happyuser.info/top/top_1`
Current branch at creation: `codex/telegram-pending-entry-paper`

## Guardrails

- Do not run real exchange orders unless Taras explicitly asks for that exact action.
- Do not touch unrelated untracked Akela/SIREN files unless the task is explicitly about them:
  - `obw_platform/meta_strategies/akela_meta_short/live_siren/run_siren_flat_restart_supervisor.sh`
  - `obw_platform/meta_strategies/akela_meta_short/reports/latest_v21_shortlist_rough_tune.md`
  - `obw_platform/meta_strategies/akela_meta_short/run_slippage_model_research_loop.sh`
  - `obw_platform/meta_strategies/akela_meta_short/slippage_model_research_loop.py`
- Telegram daemon is paper-only; do not convert it to real order execution.
- Avoid printing secrets from `.env`.

## Telegram Darkknighttrade Paper-Live

- Channel: `https://t.me/darkknighttrade`
- Daemon tmux: `tg_darkknight_paper_live`
- Command writes:
  - JSONL: `runs/telegram_paper/darkknighttrade_signals.jsonl`
  - SQLite: `runs/telegram_paper/paper_live.sqlite`
  - Log: `runs/telegram_paper/paper_live_daemon.log`
- Current paper DB tables: `signals`, `positions`, `orders`.
- Current paper positions as last checked:
  - `TAO/USDT:USDT` short, closed, realized PnL about `+4.85525 USDT`.
  - `ATOM/USDT:USDT` short, open, TP1 hit, realized PnL about `+0.42904 USDT`, remaining qty about `33.0033`.
- Last MTM check used `ATOM/USDT:USDT = 2.067` at `2026-05-19T08:53:46Z`; total paper MTM across TAO and ATOM was about `+3.7331 USDT`, or `+1.87%` on two `100 USDT` notionals.
- PRs already merged to `dev`:
  - PR #295: Telegram parser/backfill/quality/paper-live daemon.
  - PR #297: Python 3.6 compatibility.
  - PR #299: pending-entry and manual channel-exit logic.
- PR #300 was opened from this branch with static channel exit CSV and parser hardening:
  - `telegram_standard_bt_bundle/telegram_signal_standard_bt/telegram_channel_exit_events.csv`
  - 69 close/channel_exit events, date range `2025-01-06T15:00:05+00:00` to `2026-05-08T19:37:48+00:00`.

## Akela / Siren Live State

- Siren tmux: `akela_siren_flat_restart_supervisor`
- Live runner is active for `SIREN/USDT:USDT` on BingX in `--mode live`.
- Current live dir:
  - `obw_platform/_reports/_live/bingx_siren_v21_s0_20260514T031746Z`
- `STOP_NEW_ORDERS` is present with reason:
  - `max symbol runtime reached by coordinator: 180.0m`
- Watchdog also blocks new entries when open notional is above cap:
  - example status: `open notional 27.9004 > cap 25.0000`
- Current interpretation: process is alive and managing/observing, but new entries are blocked by stop markers/caps. Do not manually flatten or restart without explicit user intent.

## Akela Telemetry

Useful files:

- Passive orderbook summaries:
  - `_reports/akela_meta_short/s0_passive_orderbook/summary.json`
  - `_reports/akela_meta_short/s0_passive_orderbook_majors/summary.json`
  - `_reports/akela_meta_short/s0_passive_orderbook_midcaps/summary.json`
- V21 rank outputs:
  - `_reports/akela_meta_short/v21_majors_rank/v21_majors_rank.csv`
  - `_reports/akela_meta_short/v21_midcaps_rank/v21_majors_rank.csv` (midcaps folder uses this filename)
- Slippage model:
  - `_reports/akela_meta_short/slippage_model_research/latest.md`
  - `_reports/akela_meta_short/slippage_model_research/latest/symbol_recommendations.csv`

Last slippage research summary:

- Observations: `984`
- ENA: `n=919`, mean actual about `9.09 bp`, p50 `9.34`, p80/static `19.19`, p95/stress `19.90`, quality `ok`.
- SIREN: `n=44`, mean actual about `8.37 bp`, p50 `5.18`, p80/static `11.58`, p95/stress `35.56`, quality `ok`.
- XRP: `n=13`, mean actual about `0.60 bp`, p50 `0.00`, p95 `1.69`, quality `too_few_fills`.
- AVAX: `n=4`, mean actual about `2.05 bp`, quality `too_few_fills`.
- FREEDOMMONEY: `n=4`, mean actual about `64.32 bp`, quality `too_few_fills`.

Fresh V21 rank observations:

- Majors latest around `2026-05-19T08:32Z`.
- AI worker latest recommendation:
  - DOGE: `READY_FOR_TUNING`
  - AVAX: `READY_FOR_TUNING`
  - LINK/XRP: `OBSERVE_MORE`
  - SOL/ADA/SUI/BNB rejected or risky.
- Midcaps latest around `2026-05-19T08:17Z`; SIREN remains the strongest rank candidate in the midcap set.

## Akela Basket

Last formal basket validation:

- Summary: `obw_platform/meta_strategies/akela_meta_short/reports/latest_basket_summary.md`
- Manifest: `obw_platform/meta_strategies/akela_meta_short/reports/latest_basket_manifest.json`
- Stamp: `20260513T015344Z`
- Basket symbols:
  - `IDOL/USDT:USDT`
  - `FREEDOMMONEY/USDT:USDT`
  - `MAXXING/USDT:USDT`
  - `SUP/USDT:USDT`
- Equal-weight terminal return approximation: `72.81%`
- Simple monthly extrapolation: about `6.07%/month`
- Compound monthly equivalent: about `4.66%/month`
- Major caveat: `61` total margin-call events, with `SUP` showing severe tail risk (`MDD -219.88%`, `35` margin calls). Treat it as the last computed basket, not a safe deployment basket.

## DEX Context

Separate repo: `/var/www/vps2.happyuser.info/dex`

- `dex_control_room` is alive and checks in.
- Stage: `S3_SIGNED_PILOT`.
- Signed pilot is blocked until explicit human approval plus small-wallet, kill-switch, and transaction-preview setup.
- Do not start signed/on-chain transactions without explicit approval.

## Useful Commands

Check sessions:

```bash
tmux ls
tmux list-panes -a -F '#S:#I.#P #{pane_current_path} #{pane_current_command}'
```

Telegram paper status:

```bash
sqlite3 -header -column runs/telegram_paper/paper_live.sqlite \
  'select signal_id,symbol,side,status,entry_price,qty_initial,qty_open,notional,tp_stage,realized_pnl,opened_at,updated_at,closed_at,exit_price from positions order by signal_id;'
tail -80 runs/telegram_paper/paper_live_daemon.log
```

Akela rank/slippage:

```bash
python3 - <<'PY'
import pandas as pd
for p in [
    '_reports/akela_meta_short/v21_majors_rank/v21_majors_rank.csv',
    '_reports/akela_meta_short/v21_midcaps_rank/v21_majors_rank.csv',
]:
    df = pd.read_csv(p)
    print(p, df.shape)
    print(df.sort_values('score', ascending=False).drop_duplicates('symbol').head(10).to_string(index=False))
PY
cat _reports/akela_meta_short/slippage_model_research/latest/symbol_recommendations.csv
```