# AGENT_STATE

## Last Supervisor Run

```text
run_id: supervised_event_20260507T051503Z
utc_run_time: 2026-05-07T05:15:03Z
working_dir: /home/happyuser/projects/DEX
git_available: true
tmux_snapshot_source: .agent/snapshots/snapshot_20260507T051502Z.txt
```

## Current Stage

```text
stage: S2_PAPER_LIVE_PROOF
action_category_this_run: PAPER_LIVE_PROOF
```

Reason: the WETH/USDC 0.30% exact monthly Oleg tranche validation completed
for February, March, and April 2026. A same-config candidate passed the narrow
WETH exact S1 gate. The current gate is S2 paper-live proof on fresh data.

## Gate Status

Previous S0 blocker:

```text
Fresh exact-event NPZ inputs must exist and update reliably enough for
portfolio_router_v4 / paper_live_virtual_lp_v1 and Oleg/v8 validation.
```

Gate status:

```text
passed_for_current_BIO_and_WETH_inputs
```

Current blocking gate:

```text
S2_PAPER_LIVE_PROOF: paper-live / virtual LP must consume fresh data and log
virtual LP state, fee accrual, inventory PnL, decisions, and divergence versus
backtest before any signed pilot.
```

Gate status:

```text
fresh_paper_live_run_complete__S2_not_passed_strict_false_short_window_unit_scale_audit_needed
```

## Active tmux Sessions

Snapshot source:

```text
.agent/snapshots/snapshot_20260507T051502Z.txt
```

Sessions from snapshot:

```text
dex_control_room
```

## Evidence Generated

BIO paper-live freshness:

```text
status: stale_now__was_fresh_at_2026-05-06T08:15:18Z
npz: DEX_DATA/fast_npz/bio_usdc_fresh_paper_live_fee_replay_v2.npz
report: DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/bio_usdc_fresh_update_freshness_latest.md
```

WETH/USDC 0.30% exact monthly NPZs:

```text
DEX_DATA/fast_npz/mainnet_WETH_USDC_UNIV3_030_feb2026_fee_replay_v2.npz
DEX_DATA/fast_npz/mainnet_WETH_USDC_UNIV3_030_mar2026_fee_replay_v2.npz
DEX_DATA/fast_npz/mainnet_WETH_USDC_UNIV3_030_apr2026_fee_replay_v2.npz
```

WETH raw RPC lineage:

```text
source: raw RPC via https://ethereum.publicnode.com
collector: fetch_cl_pool_events_evm_v4_2026_05_06_resume_ts_cache
builder: build_cl_fee_replay_npz_v2_2026_05_02
failed_ranges: [] for feb2026, mar2026, apr2026
report: DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_exact_monthly_s0_data_proof_20260506T125753Z.md
```

WETH monthly counts:

```text
feb2026 rows_swap=23627 input_usd_sum=194238090.62490982
mar2026 rows_swap=20811 input_usd_sum=158140564.06709763
apr2026 rows_swap=13855 input_usd_sum=105689431.35449365
```

Freshness reports:

```text
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_feb2026_exact_freshness_20260506T125753Z.md
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_mar2026_exact_freshness_20260506T125753Z.md
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_apr2026_exact_freshness_20260506T125753Z.md
```

Smoke replay outputs:

```text
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_s0_smoke_feb2026_20260506T125753Z/summary.json
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_s0_smoke_mar2026_20260506T125753Z/summary.json
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_s0_smoke_apr2026_20260506T125753Z/summary.json
```

Smoke replay status:

```text
pass_for_all_three_months
```

Queued S1 validation job:

```text
session: oleg_weth_exact_tranche_validation_20260506T130612Z
request: .agent/job_requests/oleg_weth_exact_tranche_validation_20260506T130612Z_20260506T130730Z.request
command: bash dex_platform/scripts/watch_and_tune_oleg_weth_usdc_030_monthly.sh
log: .agent/tmux_logs/oleg_weth_exact_tranche_validation_20260506T130612Z_20260506T130809Z.log
expected_outputs: DEX_REPORTS/oleg_weth_usdc_030_tranche_tune/{feb2026,mar2026,apr2026}/
```

S1 validation terminal status:

```text
started_utc: 2026-05-06T13:08:09Z
finished_utc: 2026-05-06T17:59:58Z
exit_code: 0
completed_months: feb2026, mar2026, apr2026
terminal_event: success
result_files_seen: DEX_REPORTS/oleg_weth_usdc_030_tranche_tune/{feb2026,mar2026,apr2026}/
last_checked_utc: 2026-05-06T18:00:27Z
partial_report: DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_exact_s1_partial_status_20260506T170721Z.md
cross_window_report: DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_exact_s1_cross_window_20260506T180027Z.md
feb2026_rows: 907200
mar2026_rows: 907200
apr2026_rows: 907200
same_config_candidate: oleg_tranche_3p_0.333333f_20_30_double_once_1x_6h_rolling_low_6h_2off
same_config_min_return_pct: 1.7434065577379032
same_config_avg_return_pct: 1.9618076390821877
same_config_worst_mdd_pct: -9.644675987406693
same_config_max_p99_liquidity_share_pct_when_in_range: 0.0011560165794741257
same_config_capacity_flags: true
```

Queued S2 fresh paper-live job:

```text
session: bio_fresh_paper_live_s2_once_20260507T045523Z
request: .agent/job_requests/bio_fresh_paper_live_s2_once_20260507T045523Z_20260507T045707Z.request
action: refresh BIO/USDC exact events into a timestamped NPZ, then run one-shot paper_live_virtual_lp_v1.py
time_from: 2026-05-05T07:30:49Z
npz: DEX_DATA/fast_npz/bio_usdc_fresh_paper_live_fee_replay_v2_20260507T045523Z.npz
raw_dir: DEX_DATA/aerodrome_slipstream/bio_usdc_fresh_paper_live_20260507T045523Z
out_dir: DEX_REPORTS/paper_live_virtual_lp_bio_fresh_s2_20260507T045523Z
freshness_report: DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/bio_s2_paper_live_freshness_20260507T045523Z.md
signed_transactions: false
```

S2 fresh paper-live terminal status:

```text
session: bio_fresh_paper_live_s2_once_20260507T045523Z
started_utc: 2026-05-07T04:59:00Z
finished_utc: 2026-05-07T05:14:46Z
exit_code: 0
npz: DEX_DATA/fast_npz/bio_usdc_fresh_paper_live_fee_replay_v2_20260507T045523Z.npz
freshness_status: fresh
last_event_utc: 2026-05-07T04:58:39Z
stale_hours: 0.2688427019119263
paper_live_out_dir: DEX_REPORTS/paper_live_virtual_lp_bio_fresh_s2_20260507T045523Z
paper_live_report: DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/bio_s2_paper_live_readout_20260507T051503Z.md
rows_swap: 2725
decision_log_rows: 2
last_action: enter
last_active_route: bio_bull_periodic_2_90_336h
return_total_pct: 11.12069127877235
mdd_total_pct: -7.686729116221946
strict_pass: false
signed_transactions: false
live_ready_claim: false
```

## What Changed

Inspected the successful S2 supervised terminal event. The job refreshed a
timestamped BIO/USDC exact-event NPZ, confirmed it was fresh, and ran
`paper_live_virtual_lp_v1.py` against that NPZ. The virtual LP consumed fresh
data and logged state, events, decisions, and fee/PnL summary fields. S2 does
not pass yet because the run was short, had only two decisions, `strict_pass`
was false, and BIO unit/scale fields still need audit. No direct tmux call was
made, no secrets were touched, and no signed transaction path was touched.

## Files Changed This Run

```text
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_exact_monthly_s0_data_proof_20260506T125753Z.md
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_feb2026_exact_freshness_20260506T125753Z.md
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_mar2026_exact_freshness_20260506T125753Z.md
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_apr2026_exact_freshness_20260506T125753Z.md
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_s0_smoke_feb2026_20260506T125753Z/
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_s0_smoke_mar2026_20260506T125753Z/
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_s0_smoke_apr2026_20260506T125753Z/
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_exact_s1_partial_status_20260506T170721Z.md
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/weth_exact_s1_cross_window_20260506T180027Z.md
DEX_REPORTS/oleg_weth_usdc_030_tranche_tune/feb2026/
DEX_REPORTS/oleg_weth_usdc_030_tranche_tune/mar2026/
DEX_REPORTS/oleg_weth_usdc_030_tranche_tune/apr2026/
.agent/job_requests/oleg_weth_exact_tranche_validation_20260506T130612Z_20260506T130730Z.request
.agent/job_requests/bio_fresh_paper_live_s2_once_20260507T045523Z_20260507T045707Z.request
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/bio_s2_paper_live_freshness_20260507T045523Z.md
DEX_REPORTS/live_readiness/bio_s2_paper_live_readout_20260507T051503Z.md
DEX_REPORTS/paper_live_virtual_lp_bio_fresh_s2_20260507T045523Z/
DEX_DATA/fast_npz/bio_usdc_fresh_paper_live_fee_replay_v2_20260507T045523Z.npz
DEX_DATA/aerodrome_slipstream/bio_usdc_fresh_paper_live_20260507T045523Z/
docs/AGENT_STATE.md
```

Git note:

```text
git is present, but commit could not be made from this sandbox:
fatal: Unable to create '/home/happyuser/projects/DEX/.git/index.lock': Read-only file system
```

## Decisions Made

```text
1. S0 data-integrity blocker is passed for the current BIO and WETH inputs.
2. WETH/USDC 0.30% exact same-config S1 validation passed narrowly.
3. OHLCV proxy artifacts remain screening-only and are not final proof.
4. Fresh BIO paper-live path works, but S2 is not passed due strict_pass=false, short window, and unit-scale audit risk.
5. No signed pilot work is allowed.
```

## Next Single Action

Audit BIO unit/scale handling for the fresh NPZ and paper-live/router summary:

```text
DEX_DATA/fast_npz/bio_usdc_fresh_paper_live_fee_replay_v2_20260507T045523Z.npz
DEX_REPORTS/paper_live_virtual_lp_bio_fresh_s2_20260507T045523Z/
```

Do not make signed transactions.

## Risks

```text
Paper-live proof is not yet S2; fresh BIO path works, but the latest run is
short, strict_pass=false, and unit/scale fields need audit.
WETH exact same-config S1 passed narrowly, but it is not live evidence and it
underperformed HODL50 in the two up months.
The WETH collection used public RPC; future refreshes may need the same
resume/cache settings to avoid provider failures.
No signed pilot is allowed before S1 and S2 evidence gates pass and explicit
human approval exists.
Infura has a daily RPC quota available. Before starting or restarting any
collection job, verify whether the script prefers Infura first; if it does,
consider restarting data collection during the quota window so the collector
uses the available allowance instead of leaving it idle.
```

## Operating Rules

```text
Never start dex_control_room or codex_visible_loop.sh from Codex.
Use scripts/request_supervised_job.sh when tmux access is unavailable.
Never read, print, edit, or copy secrets.
Never make signed transactions.
```